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12/20/2003 Entry: "Sharon's Map"

For at least the past decade, Israeli diplomatic strategy has assumed that there is a set of concessions that, if made, could cause the Palestinians to stop trying to destroy the Jewish state. The extreme left values the attempt to make such a set of concessions above security; the extreme right values refraining from concessions above security.

Ariel Sharon is not an adherent of either approach. He cares about the security of Israel, and about justice. He is shifting policy away from trying to appease the Palestinians, but at the same time he is willing to do things that are unfavorable to the Israelis. He is threatening to unilaterally annex significant parts of the West Bank, and also to complete the wall, unless the Palestinians end the violence and start negotiating in good faith.

Sharon is telling the Palestianins that there is a place for them among the civilized nations if they want it, and that he's willing to help them become civilized and modern. He's willing to ease restrictions and dismantle settlements in order to make it more possible for them to make the choice to be civilized. But he is not willing to pretend that they are civilized when they are not, and he is not willing to participate in sham negotiations in an attempt to tempt them into reasonableness.

Sharon would prefer a negotiated solution, but he is not going to wait for Palestinian consent before he defends Israel. If genuine peaceful intent is not forthcoming from the Palestinians, he will act without it, and the Palestinians will get less than they would have otherwise. This policy might act as an effective threat and get the Palestinians to cooperate. That would be ideal. But if it does not, it will at least make the defense of Israel easier and encourage the Americans to take the correct side more consistently.

This strategy is only workable if the American president understands the basic morality of Israel's position. We have never had such a president before; that we have one now is an important moral developement which Sharon is handling brilliantly.

Replies: 6 comments

Is there anything about Bush's reaction to Sharon's speech that supports the idea that he "understands the basic morality of Israel's position"?Or, that he's willing to act on that understanding?

Posted by Gil @ 12/21/2003 08:06 PM EST

Gil,

Bush's agreement with the morality of Sharon's proposed dual-track policy is evident in the dog not barking.

Through his White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, Bush has welcomed Sharon's speech as an important step towards realising the road map. The translation of Bush's reaction into Arabic, for Arafat's benefit, reads as follows:

If you want a Palestinian state, do what you promised under the road map, including: dismantling the terrorist organisations, setting up the usual institutions of a free-market democracy, and holding free elections. If you do that, I, President Bush, promise you that Israel will give you all but a few percent of the disputed territories in which you can declare a Palestinian state. If you decline this offer, don't come running to me for sympathy, when Sharon institutes an alternative strategy for safeguarding Israel's security.

In case you doubt my competence in English-Arabic translation, here is a report on Bush's reaction in the original English:

Sharon, in his speech, said he remains committed to the road map and said the sides can always return to it.

McClellan praised that endorsement by Sharon of the road map, and also praised Sharon's call for removing unauthorized outposts on the West Bank and his pledge not to build new Jewish settlements.

That would be consistent with the blueprint developed by the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia, McClellan said.

The White House also praised Sharon's promise to halt special economic incentives for Israelis to settle on the West Bank and in Gaza.

While they favor the removal of Israeli settlements, many Palestinians are suspicious of Sharon's plan, viewing it as a way to restrict them into smaller areas of land in the West Bank.

But Sharon has insisted that unless the Palestinians crack down on extremist groups that launch attacks on Israelis, his government will essentially force a partition.

The White House spokesman also renewed Bush's insistence that the Palestinians take firm steps against terror and dismantle terror groups.

Earlier Friday, a senior American administration official said Sharon's speech at the Herzliya security conference, in which the prime minister unveiled his plan for 'disengagement' from the Palestinians, was a "very positive development" that could restart the peace process.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Sharon's speech indicated Israel's renewed commitment to the road map

Posted by Kolya @ 01/04/2004 11:53 PM EST

I vote for the whole "grabbing both parties by the balls and squeezing till they behave" policy.

Berard

Posted by Berard @ 03/12/2004 01:55 PM EST